Understanding Your Risk and Impacts

 The 1996 Drought in the United States: Case Study

In 1995, a severe drought developed in portions of western Texas and New Mexico. The drought carried over into 1996 in these states and expanded into Arizona, central and eastern Texas, and parts of California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Kansas. The drought area intensified during the late winter and spring months, reaching a peak severity in the May–July period for various portions of the region.

The impacts of drought began to be apparent in February, when the incidence of range fires increased dramatically in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, causing injuries and significant damage (O’Hanlon, 1996). By March, depletion of groundwater supplies was becoming a problem in parts of Texas such as the Barton Springs/Edwards Aquifer Conservation District, where residents were asked to cut water usage by 20% (U.S. Water News Online, 1996). By April, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported winter wheat conditions in nineteen states in poor to very poor condition, with the greatest problems in Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Illinois (Edwards, 1996). In May, USDA reported that prices for gasoline, diesel, and liquified petroleum were 15% above 1995 levels. Reports from ski resorts in New Mexico indicated reduced revenues of more than 20% (Reuters, 1996b). Central Arizona, California, and New Mexico experienced an increase in fires (Associated Press, 1996). In June, agricultural losses for cotton, wheat, feed grains, cattle, and corn were estimated at $2.4 billion in Texas, with an additional $4.1 billion in losses for agriculturally related industries such as harvesting, trucking, and food processing (United Press International, 1996). Reduced irrigation water led to a reduction in vegetable production in Texas, with concomitant losses in jobs and income (Antosh, 1996). Later estimates of drought losses in Texas were revised downward to about $5 billion, reflecting lower commodity prices than originally estimated (Fohn, 1996). National Agricultural Statistics Service data shows that Colorado’s winter wheat crop was down 31%.

Water restrictions continued to increase in many cities across the region. Houston residents were forced to cut back on nonessential uses (Houston Chronicle, 1996) and Sante Fe was forced to reduce water usage by 25%. Water levels in the Edwards Aquifer, the primary source of water for 1.5 million people in San Antonio and five counties in south Texas, was rapidly reaching the lowest level ever recorded (Smith, 1996). Fires continued to be a major problem throughout the drought, particularly in New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, and Utah. In Colorado, nearly 68,000 fires burned more than 2 million acres (810,000 ha) (Hillard, 1996). Colorado and New Mexico reported wind and insect damage to crops (Reuters, 1996a and 1996b). Livestock began to take a toll on range lands in the region as overgrazing worsened existing erosion problems in Arizona. A shortage of hay throughout the region reached disastrous proportions in June (Smith, 1996), forcing ranchers to sell cattle at the lowest prices in ten years. Environmental damages began to emerge as endangered species were affected, landscapes were eroded, and fires damaged countless areas in the region (Holmes, 1996). Nitrate levels in hay rose dramatically in Oklahoma, reaching toxic or near-toxic levels for livestock (Schafer, 1996).

Food prices responded to the lower production levels for milk, meat, produce, and other foodstuffs (Lee, 1996; Carrillo, 1996). For example, the price of fruit increased more than 22% in June (Carrillo, 1996). Fires continued to occur throughout the region and expanded into the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rocky Mountain states (Laceky, 1996; Associated Press, 1996).

There are no official estimates of the total losses and damages from the 1996 drought. Given the $5 billion in impacts that occurred in Texas, total regional impacts could be safely estimated in the $10–15 billion range, although it is difficult to quantify many social and environmental impacts. What was remarkable to many was the significant level of regional vulnerability, the diversity of impacts, and the lack of preparedness to respond to many of these impacts. Many of the states in this region have now initiated longer-term planning efforts directed at improving mitigation and preparedness efforts.

References
Antosh, N. 1996. Water shortages in Texas result in crop cutbacks. Houston Chronicle, August 18.
Associated Press. 1996a. Emergency declared as Arizona fires rage. May 3.
Associated Press. 1996b. Dry weather raises threat as fires burn in western states. August 25.
Carrillo, L. 1996. Labor Department confirms what consumers know: Food prices increasing. Sun–Sentinel (South Florida), July 14.
Edwards, C. 1996. Wheat futures soar as Kansas crop written off. Associated Press. April 2.
Fohn, J. 1996. Agriculture column, San Antonio Express–News, San Antonio, Texas. August 21.
Hillard, C. 1996. Wildfire threat. Associated Press. June 28.
Holmes, M. 1996. Battling drought, Texas biologists try to save endangered species. Southwest Sunday. June 27.
Houston Chronicle. 1996. Dow Chemical institutes drought plan to reduce Houston area water use. June 2.
Laceky, T. 1996. Rain, snow, frost helping calm western fires, but winds still threaten. Associated Press. September 6.
Lee, S. H. 1996. Dairy industry cites drought as cause of rising milk prices. Dallas Morning News. July 8.
O’Hanlon, K. 1996. Texas grass fire burns out of control, dozens of homes destroyed. Associated Press. February 23.
Reuters. 1996a. Drought-hit Texas asks Mexico to enforce water pact. May 31.
Reuters. 1996b. Southwest drought threatens broad economic damage. June 3.
Schafer, S. 1996. Toxic hay threatens cattle in Oklahoma. Tulsa World. July 29.
Smith, W. 1996. Southwestern drought takes toll on farmers, businesses. Chicago Tribune. June 27.
Stafford, J. 1996. Rain proves timely for Oklahoma cotton producers. The Daily Oklahoman. July 30.
United Press International. 1996. Southwest farmers battle record drought. May 30.
U.S. Water News Online. 1996. Drought alert sounded in Edwards Aquifer region of Texas. March.