Summer 2007 U.S. Drought Outlook and April to June Summary

By Brian Fuchs, Climatologist, National Drought Mitigation Center

Drought classifications are based on the US Drought Monitor. For a detailed explanation, please visit http://drought.unl.edu/dm/classify.htm The outlook integrates existing conditions with forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Outlook: Drought conditions over the far west are expected to continue over the next several months. The dry and hot summer months will intensify and spread existing drought, particularly in California, Nevada and Utah. Drought in Hawaii will continue, with impacts related to water supply, fire and agriculture being observed over most of the islands. The drought in the Southeast should show some improvements along the Gulf Coast through the Mid-Atlantic, with good chances of above-normal precipitation. Due to large precipitation deficits and numerous impacts already occurring, the northern parts of Alabama, Mississippi, Georgia and Tennessee probably won’t show much improvement over the next several months. Drought over the Tennessee and Ohio River valleys will continue, with some migration of the dryness into the eastern Corn Belt.

April: Drought intensified during April even though the total area affected was reduced. April started out with 49.38 percent of the United States showing abnormally dry or drought conditions and ended with 47.57 percent. In contrast to this, areas in moderate to extreme drought expanded from 30.58 percent to 31.71 percent of the United States. Good news in the northern Rocky Mountains and High Plains was offset by dry conditions in the far west and Southeast. The strengthening drought in the Southeast led to many impacts associated with water supply, agriculture, wildfire, and energy. Wildfires were a problem over much of Georgia and Florida, as the number of fires and total acres burned were well ahead of average for this time of year. In the west, further expansion of D1 and D2 in California and Nevada corresponded closely to agricultural and fire danger impacts being reported in those regions.

May: As of May 29, 50.5 percent of the United States was experiencing abnormally dry to extreme drought conditions. Severe to extreme drought was affecting 17.66 percent of the country. Wet conditions over the Plains, Montana, and New Mexico and into Iowa continued to diminish drought in these regions. D3 was eliminated from Nebraska and reduced in Minnesota. For May much of the United States recorded below normal precipitation, intensifying the drought in the Southeast and West. D3 conditions spread in the southeast, covering much of Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Mississippi, Tennessee and North Carolina. In Florida, Lake Okeechobee approached record low-levels, with strict water restrictions over much of south Florida. D2 conditions spread over more of the West, with more of Nevada, Oregon and California now experiencing D2 drought. 

June: June saw continued wet weather in the Plains and dry conditions through much of the rest of the United States. Temperatures have been near normal for most locations, with the area around the Great Lakes well above normal. Currently, 53.58 percent of the country is categorized as being abnormally dry or in drought, compared to 50.50 percent at the beginning of the month. D4 drought has been identified in the Southeast, centered in Alabama where 43.7 percent of that state is suffering from exceptional drought conditions. Flooding rains have continued for the last several weeks in Texas and Oklahoma, completely reversing drought situations from a year ago when all of Oklahoma and almost all of Texas were experiencing long-term drought. Major wildfires have erupted in the West, with a large fire still uncontained in the Lake Tahoe area. As summer progresses, wildfire dangers in the West will worsen.

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