Spring 2007 U.S. Drought Outlook and January to March Summary

By Brian Fuchs, Climatologist, National Drought Mitigation Center

Drought classifications are based on the US Drought Monitor. For a detailed explanation, please visit http://drought.unl.edu/dm/classify.htm.  The outlook integrates existing conditions with forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center.

Outlook: The drought outlook for the western United States looks grim for the next several months. Warm temperatures leading to early snow melt will hurt many locations in the West. Drought will continue over much of California, Nevada, and Arizona, and could expand to include much of Utah and western Colorado. Drought will continue over the High Plains as well, with Wyoming, western Nebraska, and western South Dakota showing little improvement. Drought conditions in Florida are also likely to persist. The good news is that conditions should continue to improve over the southern Plains, with Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas seeing the most improvement. Improvements should also occur over much of Minnesota, reaching into North Dakota and Wisconsin.

January: During the month of January, there was a general improvement of drought conditions in the United States. At the end of January, 43.68 percent of the country was experiencing some level of drought, compared to 49.99 percent at the beginning of the month. All categories of drought improved except for a slight expansion in the D2-D4 range. The southern Plains and Midwest were the two regions showing the most improvement during January, as wet conditions continued from December. D3 status was removed from Oklahoma, and D2 and D3 were eliminated from northeast Texas. D1 conditions were eliminated from Missouri and Iowa as well. Florida and California were exceptions, each having one of the driest Januaries on record, which led to expansions of D1 and D2 conditions in each state.

February: February saw an expansion of drought in the United States. It started off with 43.68 percent of the country designated abnormally dry or worse, and expanded to 45.30 percent by the end of the month. Drought expanded over two general regions during February. There was a large expansion of D0 and D1 conditions over much of the Appalachians as winter dryness impacted the region. In the western United States, D0 was expanded to include all of Nevada and Utah, reaching into Idaho and Oregon. D1 and D2 conditions were also expanded in California and Arizona as the dry winter season continued. Further expansion of drought was prevented by the better than normal storage of water in the states’ reservoir systems due to a very good Water Year in 2005-06.  The Midwest continued to see improvements. All drought designation was eliminated from Missouri and Iowa during February as wet winter conditions continued. Much of southern Minnesota, eastern South Dakota, Montana and Wyoming also saw improved drought conditions as a series of winter storms impacted the region.

March: Warm temperatures over much of the western United States brought a rapid end to snowpack accumulation for most locations. A poor snow season coupled with an early onset to snowpack reduction due to warm temperatures has worsened conditions and allowed for further expansion of drought designations. As of March 27, 55 percent of the United States was classified with some level of dryness and drought. Almost 5 percent of the country was experiencing extreme drought while almost 33 percent had at least moderate drought conditions. In Arizona and California, D3 conditions were introduced, and D2 conditions were also expanded. D0, D1, and D2 conditions were expanded in the Southeast and Appalachian regions with an introduction of D3 in Alabama and Tennessee as short-term and long-term drought situations continue. Texas and Oklahoma saw significant improvements as heavy rains continued to push the drought designations towards the west. D4 was completely eliminated in Texas, leaving just a small area of D3. Oklahoma saw the removal of all D2 conditions. This is the first time since November 2006 that there are no areas of D4 in either Oklahoma or Texas.

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