For local details and impacts, please contact your State Climatologist or Regional Climate Center.

This summary map is based on a multi-index drought classification scheme.

National Drought Summary, August 11, 1999

In general, drought conditions intensified across the nation last week, with little rain observed in the East and increased fire activity over parts of the interior West. The National Interagency Coordination Center (NICC) indicated that 3.81 million acres had been consumed by fires this year through August 11, a 46% increase during the past week, and 79% more than the 10-year average for the year to date. In addition, the nationwide proportion of several major crops in poor or very poor continued to creep upward. On August 8, soybeans were 16% poor or very poor, corn 14%, and pastures/rangelands 23%, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS/USDA).

The Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and upper Ohio Valley -- Very little rain fell during August 2 - 9, with totals of 1" to locally 3" reported only at scattered sites in northern New England, the upper Ohio Valley, and central Appalachians. As a result, much of the mid-Atlantic and parts of upstate New York remained in extreme long-term drought as determined by the Palmer Drought Index.  From July 1, 1998 through August 8, 1999 several locations from Kentucky northeastward through southern New England received 15" to 20" less precipitation than normal, and the July 1998 - July 1999 period was the driest of any 13-month period since July 1930 - July 1931 for Maryland as a whole and since August 1965 - August 1966 for New Jersey. In addition, severe short-term dryness (Crop Moisture Index) covered areas from eastern West Virginia and Maryland northward through eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and southern New England. April - July 1999 was the driest such period in 105 years of record for Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and Rhode Island, according to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) and the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), and accumulated April 1 - August 8, 1999 deficits reached 6 to 8 inches at scattered locations along the region's southern and eastern tiers. NASS/USDA reported short or very-short topsoil moisture in at least 73% of all states in the region, with 95% to 100% of topsoils short or very short of moisture in 7 states (KY, WV, DE, NJ, CT, RI, and NH). Furthermore, 64% of corn and 19% of oats in Pennsylvania were in poor or very poor condition, as were 21% of soybeans and 26% of corn in Ohio, and 32% of soybeans and 23% of corn in Kentucky. Most of these agricultural statistics marked a decline in conditions from the previous week. According to streamflow data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), 82% of mid-Atlantic streamflow-reporting sites noted flows in the lowest 25% of all observations for the date on August 11. Elsewhere, 76% of New England sites and 62% of Ohio Valley sites were similarly low. OUTLOOK: Less than 0.5” of rain is expected during August 11 – 15 in most areas, with somewhat larger amounts restricted to parts of the immediate East Coast and areas west of the Appalachians. Temperatures should range from slightly below-normal in northern sections to slightly above-normal across the southern tier. The ensuing 5 days (August 15 - 19) should bring near-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures to most locations, except for continued subnormal precipitation in Delmarva, southern New Jersey, and adjacent Pennsylvania; and for near-normal temperatures in western New England and upstate New York. [LATEST 6- TO 10- DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC]

The Southeast -- Light rains and above-normal temperatures increased topsoil moisture shortages and crop stress through most of the region last week. Only the far southern Atlantic Coast recorded abundant rainfall, with 2" to locally 6" measured in much of Florida and isolated sites in southern Georgia. On August 9, moderate rains fell along the Gulf Coast, in Florida, and on parts of eastern North Carolina, but dry weather again prevailed elsewhere. As a result, excessively to severely dry short-term conditions covered most areas by August 7, and moderate to isolated extreme long-term drought expanded through eastern sections of the region. Short or very short topsoil moisture was observed across 70% to 85% of each state from Tennessee and North Carolina southward to the central Gulf Coast, with somewhat lower proportions similarly dry in Florida and Louisiana, according to NASS/USDA. Crop conditions continued to deteriorate in most states as the Georgia Agricultural Statistics Service reported 38% of soybeans, 32% of corn, 26% of cotton, and 15% of peanuts in poor or very poor condition on August 8. In addition, 34% of Tennessee soybeans, 22% of South Carolina soybeans, 28% of Tennessee cotton, and 29% of Alabama cotton were in poor or very poor condition. Pastures also continued to decline in quality, with most states (except Florida) reporting 20% to 35% of these lands in poor or very poor condition. According to USGS, 72% of South Atlantic/Gulf observing sites and 64% of Tennessee Valley sites reported streamflows among the lowest 25% on record for August 11, modestly higher than during the previous week. OUTLOOK: For August 11 - 15, rainfall totals exceeding 1” should be restricted to parts of Mississippi and central Florida while much of the south Atlantic states can expect less than 0.5” of rain. Above-normal temperatures could exacerbate the dryness, with highs across the western Southeast and northern Georgia forecast to average several degrees above normal. The ensuing 5 days (August 15 - 19) aren't expected to bring much improvement. Above-normal temperatures are anticipated throughout the area while subnormal rains fall on the northwestern half of the region. Near-normal rains are forecast elsewhere, except along the immediate South Carolina and Georgia coasts. [LATEST 6- TO 10- DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC]

The central Plains, middle Mississippi Valley, and eastern Corn Belt -- Heavy rains (1" to locally 4") fell on parts of the central and upper southern Plains and the middle Mississippi Valley during August 2 - 8, but lesser amounts fell on the lower Mississippi Valley, the eastern Corn Belt, and the lower southern Plains. The continued dryness, in addition to above-normal temperatures across the lower Mississippi Valley, allowed excessively to severely dry short-term conditions to expand across central and eastern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, the lower Mississippi Valley, and parts of the northeastern Corn Belt. However, the long-term moisture situation remained favorable due to spring and early summer rains. Therefore, streamflows and water supplies are not a concern (except for some international reservoirs along the Rio Grande Valley), but the dryness is beginning to adversely affect agriculture. According to NASS/USDA, short or very short topsoil moisture covered 75% to 90% of Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, and Arkansas on August 8, and 24% to 50% of states in the central and upper southern Plains (Texas does not report topsoil moisture conditions). The proportion of pastures in poor or very poor condition increased to between 50% and 65% in Indiana and Missouri on August 8, but remained below 35% elsewhere despite increasing during the past week. In Indiana, 21% of soybeans and 29% of corn were in poor or very poor condition, as were 32% of sorghum and 33% of corn in Missouri, and 28% of Illinois sorghum. Between 15% and 18% of Arkansas soybeans, Illinois corn, and Illinois soybeans were also in poor or very poor condition. OUTLOOK: Heavy beneficial rains (1” to 3”) are forecast for August 11 – 15 in the immediate lower Mississippi Valley. Moderate rains (0.5" to 1.0") are expected in eastern sections of both the Corn Belt and the middle Mississippi Valley, and in much of southern Arkansas and Louisiana, but subnormal precipitation is anticipated elsewhere. Above-normal temperatures should cover the entire region (particularly the Plains), serving to further deplete topsoil moisture and stress crops.  The following 5 days (August 15 - 19) are expected to remain warmer than normal throughout the region while near-normal rains fall on the western lower Mississippi Valley, the central Plains, middle Mississippi Valley, and eastern Corn Belt. Drier than normal conditions are forecast elsewhere. [LATEST 6- TO 10- DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC]

The Southwest, Great Basin, Intermountain West, and northwestern Rockies -- During the last 7 days, substantial monsoon rains (locally approaching 5") again pelted eastern Arizona and most of New Mexico while light rains dampened parts of central Arizona, Utah, and the northern Intermountain West. Little or no rain fell elsewhere during this relatively dry time of the year. These conditions contributed to the development and rapid spread of several wildfires across the Nevada. According to NICC, of the 3.81 million acres burned nationally by wildfires in 1999 (through August 11), 35% were in the western Great Basin, and most of that was consumed during the last 7 to 10 days. Fortunately, a reduction in fire danger was noted over the past couple of days, though several large areas of high to very high fire danger persisted through at least August 10, according to NICC. The dryness is also affecting crops and pastures across the region, with 20% of Montana spring wheat, 36% of Montana barley, and 35% of Washington barley in poor or very poor condition on August 8, according to NASS/USDA. Approximately 50% to 85% of topsoils were short or very short of moisture for each of the 5 northwestern states (WA, OR, ID, MT, WY), but the dry proportions were substantially lower in central and southeastern parts of the area (Arizona, Nevada, and California do not report topsoil moisture conditions). Half of Washington's rangelands were in poor or very poor condition of August 8, but only about 5% to 20% or rangelands in other states were similarly stressed. Fortunately, streamflows and water stores throughout the region are in generally good condition. For the past several weeks, heavy monsoonal rains have been falling on most areas that had been enduring an extended period of drought (dating back before the start of 1999) earlier in the summer. OUTLOOK: For August 11 - 15, a decline in monsoon activity is anticipated, and only orographically-favored areas in Arizona and New Mexico can expect 0.5" to locally 1.0” of rain. About one-quarter of an inch is also forecast in northeastern parts of the region, but little or no rain is anticipated in most northern and western areas. Also, unseasonably cool weather is forecast, with daily highs averaging more than 8^oF below normal in central and northeastern Oregon and adjacent parts of Idaho and eastern Washington. The ensuing 5 days (August 15 - 19) are expected to remain cool and dry in most areas, although above-normal rainfall could beneficially dampen much of the Pacific Northwest and northern Intermountain West. [LATEST 6- TO 10- DAY OUTLOOK FROM CPC]