The South: It was quite warm and dry during the last 7 days. Temperatures averaged 3^°F to 10^°F above normal in most non-coastal areas, and precipitation totals above 0.2" (to locally 1.0") were restricted to part of the western Carolinas and southwest Virginia. As a result, moisture deficits remained basically intact or worsened, particularly in much of Louisiana and the northern half of Texas. Many of these areas received only 20% to 60% of normal precipitation from late July through mid-November. Large sections of Texas and Louisiana are now experiencing D2 (severe) drought, as are parts of western Georgia and northeastern Tennessee. Areas from Georgia northward to the central Appalachians experienced a marked increase in wildfire activity of late, with more than 33,000 acres scorched during November 16 - 17.

Outlook: Warm and dry conditions should persist through November 18 - 22, especially in western sections. However, normal temperatures and precipitation are anticipated in the affected region during November 23 - 27.

The Ohio Valley, Midwest, and Plains: Very warm and dry conditions also dominated this region. Between 0.2" and 0.6" of precipitation dampened much of New York and parts of the lower Great Lakes region and upper Mississippi Valley, but little or none fell on a vast majority of the area. Temperatures averaged significantly above normal from the Ohio Valley westward, with weekly departures reaching +15^°F to +21^°F in the central and northern Plains and adjacent Mississippi Valley. Almost summer-like readings were noted on a few days as highs reached 80^°F as far north as eastern Montana, and 87^°F in central South Dakota. Obviously, these conditions allowed dryness to persist or worsen throughout the region. D2 (severe) drought continued to cover much of the lower Ohio Valley and adjacent areas, and another area of D2 (severe) drought was identified in and around eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, where only 20% to 50% of normal precipitation fell since mid-August.

Outlook: Light to moderate precipitation is expected along the northern tier of the region during November 18 - 22, but little or none is expected elsewhere. The ensuing 5 days, however, are forecast to bring above-normal precipitation to most areas experiencing dryness or drought, providing some hope for recovery during the Thanksgiving holiday period. Temperatures should remain above normal for November 18 - 22, though not to the extent observed in the past 10 days. Thereafter, unusual warmth should continue through November 27 from the northeastern Plains and lower Ohio Valley eastward, but near-normal readings are anticipated in the central and northwestern Plains.

The West: The West was abnormally warm and seasonably dry for the last 7 days, with precipitation totals above 0.2" confined to scattered sections of the Rockies, the northern Inter-mountain West, and the southeast Great Basin and adjacent areas. As a result, abnormally dry (D0) and some drought (D1) conditions persisted across much of the Rockies and interior West, with abnormal dryness (D0) expanding into western Wyoming and the northern High Plains.

Outlook: Decreasing temperatures and near- to above-normal precipitation over the next 10 days should improve or alleviate the short-term abnormal dryness (D0) and drought (D1) conditions in many areas from the western Rockies westward.

Non-contiguous U.S.: Subnormal rainfall was observed in central and eastern Hawaii, keeping abnormal dryness (D0) to drought (D1) intact. A few locations on Maui and the Big Island received only 30% to 50% of normal rainfall since the beginning of the year. On Guam, about 55% of typical annual rainfall occurs from August through mid-November [3 ½ months], and this period was considerably drier than normal in 1999. About two-thirds of normal (over 16" less than normal) was recorded for August 1 - November 15, 1999 at the Guam Weather Service Office in Tiyan, and most of this deficit (nearly 14") accumulated during the last 2 months (through mid-November; 51% of normal). However, no significant impacts have been reported due to this dryness. There are no significant dryness problems in Alaska or Puerto Rico.

Outlook: Hawaii should see gradual improvement over the next few months as seasonal rainfall increases. In Guam, the persistence of La Nina conditions through December - February favors above-normal rainfall on the island, so substantial dryness-related impacts are not anticipated despite the recent subnormal rains.