The South: Moderate to heavy rains (1" to locally 4") fell on many areas from Alabama and the Tennessee Valley eastward to the south Atlantic coast, preventing any worsening of drought conditions in those regions. Severe (D2) drought persisted in parts of western Georgia despite last week's rainfall, but abnormally dry (D0) to drought (D1) conditions covered most other areas.

Farther west, conditions deteriorated across Louisiana and Texas, where little or no rain fell last week. Much of central and northern Texas reported less than half of normal precipitation for the 90 days ending November 7, resulting in a northward expansion of D1 drought and the development of severe (D2) drought in east-central and west-central parts of the state.

Outlook: Warm and dry weather is anticipated for the next 5 days, abetting continued dryness. In the 6- to 10-day time frame, temperatures are expected to average closer to normal, with below-normal readings possible east of the Mississippi River, but unfortunately very little or no precipitation is again expected.

The Midwest and Ohio Valley: Moderate rains (1-3") benefitted areas of central Ohio and northeastern Kentucky experiencing severe (D2) drought, but another week with little rain or snow allowed dryness to expand through much of the Great Lakes region and the central and northern Plains. Most of these areas received less than half of normal rain during the last 30 days, with large sections of South Dakota, Nebraska, northern Kansas, and the middle Mississippi Valley measuring less than 25% of normal. For locations in and near the eastern half of Nebraska, totals below 25% of normal date back to early September, prompting the expansion of D1 drought westward into these areas. The ongoing dryness has raised concerns about the currently-developing winter wheat crop, the potential persistence of moisture shortages into the primary year 2000 growing season, and an unusually high wildfire risk.

Excessive summer rains left substantial long-term moisture surpluses in the northern Great Plains, but the last couple of months brought below normal precipitation to these regions, so abnormal dryness (D0) for short-term deficits was expanded significantly northwestward to reflect recent conditions. Farther east, below-normal precipitation for the last 2 to 4 weeks, in addition to the persistence of very-long-term moisture deficits dating back to summer 1998, has led to a modest degree of abnormal dryness (D0) through areas from western Virginia northeastward to the middle Hudson Valley.

Outlook: Warm and primarily dry for the next 5 days, although a few tenths of an inch of precipitation should dampen parts of West Virginia, west Pennsylvania, and upstate New York. Exceptional warmth is expected in the central and lower northern Plains, where daily highs are forecast to average 20°F to 25°F above normal. For the ensuing 5 days, average temperatures will range from above-normal in the Plains and Mississippi Valley to near- or below-normal farther east. Meanwhile, near- or above-normal precipitation is expected from lower Michigan, eastern Indiana, and northeast Kentucky eastward, but little or none is expected elsewhere.

The West: Beneficial rainfall (up to 1") in the interior Northwest improved drought conditions, with drought (D1) now restricted to northwestern Nevada and adjacent areas. However, another week of little or no rainfall allowed abnormal dryness (D0) to expand southeastward through much of Nevada, Utah, and west Colorado. At this time, however, long-term moisture shortages and water supply problems are not a concern anywhere from the Rockies westward.

Outlook: Ample precipitation (over 1" in some areas) should continue to abet slow drought relief in the Pacific Northwest east of the Cascades during the next 5 days. Unfortunately, areas farther to the south and east are expecting little or no precipitation. In the 6- to 10-day period, areas in the Pacific Northwest from the Cascades eastward into northwestern Montana should receive near-normal precipitation, but little or none is again anticipated elsewhere. Temperatures should average above normal throughout the next 10 days.

Non-contiguous U.S.: Conditions continued to improve in both eastern and western Hawaii last week, where welcome moderate rains (1-3") were noted. These rains were sufficient to lift most of Kauai out of abnormal dryness (D0) though pockets of moisture shortages remain. In contrast, the central Islands received only a few tenths of an inch of rain last week, and agricultural producers would benefit from additional rains.

There are no significant dryness problems in Alaska, Guam, or Puerto Rico.

Outlook: In Hawaii, gradual improvement is expected during the remainder of the year as seasonal rains increase.