Summary: A second consecutive week of occasional showers brought additional limited relief from the 14-month drought in the East. For the week ending August 21, rainfall totaled 1 inch or more in many areas from eastern Georgia into southern New England. Heavier totals, in excess of 2 inches, were observed in western New York and central Pennsylvania. Little rain fell farther to the west, allowing drought to intensify from the middle Ohio Valley southwestward into Texas. At week's end, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), pastures were rated at or above 55% very poor to poor in 18 states from Arkansas and Missouri eastward to Georgia and South Carolina, and northward to Vermont and New York. Meanwhile, warm weather returned to the West during the week, bringing a gradual increase in the threat of wildfire activity. Hurricane Bret made landfall across southern Texas on Sunday evening, August 22, producing torrential rainfall (locally in excess of 10 inches) and flooding, but improving the region's long-term water supply prospects.

East, South, and Midwest: Drought continues to expand in many areas from central and eastern Texas northeastward to the central and southern Appalachians. During the last month, extreme heat has contributed to a rapid deterioration in crop and pasture conditions in most of the nation's southeastern quadrant. Recent rainfall has brought slight improvement to areas east of the Appalachians, particularly in portions of the Northeast.

Streamflow improved slightly in the Mid-Atlantic Basin, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, as only 30% of the 221 gauging stations reported flows in the lowest 10% of the historical observations for the date on August 22, down from a peak of 64% on August 12. Flows continued to diminish, however, in many parts of the South Atlantic-Gulf Basin (eastern Mississippi to the Carolinas), where 50% of the 182 gauging stations noted flows in the lowest 10% of the observations on August 22. Among the 39 reporting stations in the Tennessee Valley, 38% reported flow in the lowest 10% of observations on August 22, up from none as recently as July 26. As of August 22, NASS rated soybeans at 51% very poor to poor in South Carolina, followed by 49% in Tennessee, and 48% in both Kentucky and Georgia. Cotton was rated 36% very poor to poor in Missouri, 35% in Alabama, and 34% in both South Carolina and Tennessee. Corn was rated 57% very poor to poor in Pennsylvania and 37% in Missouri.

Outlook: Hurricane Dennis, which is centered north of the Bahamas, may threaten the Southeast as early as August 29. Although a landfalling hurricane could cause extensive damage due to wind, waves, and flooding, the region would benefit from the long-term effects of a soaking rainfall. Even if Dennis does not directly affect the United States, significant rainfall (1 to 3 inches) is forecast during the next 5 days in the Gulf and Atlantic Coast States. Additional heavy rainfall is possible across the South during the 6- to 10-day (August 31 - September 4) period, but mostly dry weather is forecast to return to the Ohio Valley and Northeast. A transitional weather pattern (an eastward-shifting ridge) will bring very warm weather back into the Midwest in early September.

West: Few significant changes were observed in the region. Fire activity remains a threat from southern California northward into portions of Washington, Idaho, and western Montana. Agricultural drought remains a concern in the interior Northwest as growers begin to prepare for winter wheat planting.

As of August 23, several large fires were burning in the western Great Basin and southern California, according to the National Interagency Fire Center. For the year to date, wildfires have consumed 3,945,636 acres, 169% of the 10-year average. Much of the acreage was consumed in Alaska during July and in the western Great Basin earlier this month.

Outlook: After a hot, mostly dry period in the West during the next 5 days, sharply cooler weather is forecast to arrive, accompanied by widespread showers. During the transition period, gusty winds and possible dry thunderstorms may spark a flare-up in wildfire activity. The 6- to 10-day forecast calls for below-normal temperatures in the western Great Basin and the West Coast States, and above-normal rainfall in most areas west of the Continental Divide.