The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

The Northwest and Northern Rockies: A steady volley of Pacific storms continued to pound the Northwest. Precipitation amounts of 0.5 to more than 4 inches ended remaining drought in Washington, Idaho, and extreme northwestern Montana. Nevertheless, mountain snow packs remained below normal in northern Idaho, adjacent Montana, and parts of Washington, resulting in continuing D0H conditions. Rain and snow amounts were not enough to appreciably change the drought situation in Wyoming and north-central Montana.

Southwest: This was another week of abnormally dry, warm weather across the region. Flagstaff, Arizona had not measured its first measurable snowfall of the season by January 8, breaking a record that had stood for more than 70 years. In Phoenix, January 10 was the 84 th consecutive day without rain.D1 drought advanced westward in Arizona, while the D1 area in northeastern New Mexico joined the D1 over northwestern New Mexico. A new D2 drought area developed in southern Arizona. Tucson reported just 0.32 inches of rain (one-tenth of normal) since October 1. D1 drought also expanded into southeastern Colorado.

The Plains: Abnormally warm, dry weather resulted in continuing D1 to D4 drought from Oklahoma into Texas, with westward expansion of D3 and D4 in southern Texas, and northward expansion of D3 in eastern Oklahoma. Recent windy, warm, and dry weather created critical fire danger conditions in Oklahoma and Texas. U.S. wildfires scorched over one-half million acres in the first 10 days of January, mainly in Texas and Oklahoma.

Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast: Low pressure tracking across Arkansas on January 9-10 brought welcomed rain to the state, but average amounts of 0.3 to around 1 inch failed to put a dent in the drought and, due to earlier warm and dry conditions, D3 drought even expanded into central Arkansas. Recent dryness led to D0 spreading into southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. D1 to D2 drought continued in parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. Hydrological drought impacts persisted in the Raleigh-Durham area of North Carolina, with mandatory conservation efforts affecting nearly 500,000 residents.  Although the area was too small to indicate on the national map, higher-resolution statewide maps continued to keep a small D1 area in the upper Neuse River Basin.

Midwest: Light precipitation resulted in little change in the D1 to D3 drought in Iowa and Illinois, although a tweaking of the D3 area edged it northeastward in northeastern Illinois and pulled it back slightly in northwestern Illinois. Groundwater levels in Du Page County, in northeast Illinois, were the lowest since at least 1988. A re-assessment of moisture indicators led to some reduction of the D0H area in northern parts of Wisconsin and Michigan. Lack of moisture also led to minor expansion of D2 drought into northwestern Indiana.

Alaska and Hawaii: Little precipitation fell on interior southeastern Alaska, keeping D0 conditions unchanged. Farther south, light to moderate rains, with some heavy showers in windward areas, failed to significantly change the D0 and D1 status over Hawaii.

Looking Ahead: Forecast weather that could have an impact on dry or drought areas across the country in the next 2 weeks include: 1) a shift toward a wetter pattern from the Mississippi Valley eastward that should bring above-normal rainfall to drought areas from Illinois to Arkansas and eastern parts of Oklahoma and Texas, as well as Kentucky and Tennessee; 2) little or no rain from west Texas into southern Arizona; 3) ongoing wet weather yielding to a more normal precipitation pattern in Washington and northern Idaho by around January 19; 4) temperatures averaging above normal for most of the country from the Plains eastward, despite brief bouts of wintry chill.

Updated January 11, 2006