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September 2, 2003 US Drought Monitor

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North American Drought Monitor



National Drought Summary -- September 2, 2003

New England: Little in the way of precipitation last week keeps things the same in Maine this week with lingering hydrological drought (D0 H) still causing groundwater impacts in some locations.

Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region: On the heels of recent hot and dry weather, a strong cold front out of Canada turned stationary over the region as it lay draped across the middle Mississippi Valley over part of the holiday weekend. Aided by an infusion of moisture from Tropical Depression (TD) Grace, abundant amounts of rainfall were observed (6-8”or more) from the central and southern Plains over into the Ohio Valley. Most of the large rainfall amounts were observed south of the Great Lakes region, leaving conditions dry once again for most of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa and northern Illinois. As a result, severe drought (D2) has expanded into central and northeastern Iowa while moderate drought (D1) has spread farther north in Minnesota and into eastern and northern Wisconsin as well.

Areas that benefitted most from the rain were Illinois and Missouri, where 2-6 inches were commonly observed over the last week. This was good enough to remove any signs of abnormal dryness (D0) in southern Illinois. In Missouri, the rains were even more plentiful, to the point of “too much too fast”in the west central and western reaches. Areas in and around Kansas City saw 6-8 inches, but farther north the totals fell off to basically nothing. These rains brought one- to two-category improvements for all of the state except for the northwest corner. The abnormally dry (D0) and moderate drought (D1) have been pushed out of the Bootheel region. In the western and west-central areas, the extreme drought (D3) was displaced northward as a result as much of the region went from extreme (D3) or severe (D2) drought to moderate drought or abnormally dry (D0).

The Plains: Temperatures across the region weren’t as brutally hot as the previous week, but rains missed most the northern Plains, instead choosing to dump on Kansas, Oklahoma and northern Texas. Continued dryness in western South Dakota led to a slight expansion eastward of extreme (D3) and severe (D2) drought. In the eastern half of the state, moderate drought (D1) has now crept over from Minnesota as well. Both crops and soils continued in their downward spiral.

The southern Plains are another story. Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas benefitted most from the parked cold front and TD Grace’s moisture plume. Copious rains (6-8”or more) pelted parts of Kansas and Oklahoma in particular. Surprisingly, flooding wasn’t as bad as it could have been given the extremely parched soils in these parts, which acted like a sponge on otherwise torrential amounts. Accordingly, a general 1-category decrease was marked in central and eastern Kansas along with most of Oklahoma with some 2-category improvement seen where rains were the greatest.

Western and northern Texas also benefitted from TD Grace as 2-4 inches were common from the southeast coast all the way up into the Panhandle. A general 1-category improvement was made in northern and western Texas where severe drought (D2), moderate drought (D1) and abnormally dry (D0) conditions retreated to the north and west.

The West: There are signs in the air that the monsoon is winding down now. The lack of a banner monsoon (for most locales) means we will now (for the most part) move into a wait-and-see mode as to what the winter brings to the West. Some areas in Colorado, Wyoming and central Arizona saw good rains over the past week. Above-normal precipitation over the past 90 days or so have led to some slight improvement in parts of southwest Wyoming, where a 1-category decrease from extreme (D3) to severe drought (D2) is depicted.

Hawaii, Alaska, Puerto Rico: In Hawaii, rains continue to be limited to the windward sides, leaving the leeward sides high and dry. No new changes are warranted here for the time being.

In Alaska, decent rains over the past week are still not enough to offset the longer 30-90 day dryness in the southeast.

Good rains fell over some of the dry areas found in western Puerto Rico, whittling away at the abnormally dry (D0) conditions found there.

Looking Ahead: Weather events that may have an impact on abnormally dry or drought areas during the next 5 days (Sep. 4-8) include: 1) most of the West looks to be relatively warm and dry next week with the exceptions being the Pacific Northwest, central Arizona, and northern Colorado where .75 to 1 inch or more are expected; 2) after the major rains of the past week, the southern Plains look to be cool and dry.

The 6- to 10-day outlook for September 9-13 calls for above-normal temperature from the Great Plains eastward while the Intermountain West and Southwest can expect below-normal readings. As for precipitation, the Desert Southwest and lower Rocky spine regions can expect below-normal totals as can the southern Plains and the rest of the East. The Pacific Northwest and most of the Great Basin will be seeing the potential for above-normal totals over this time frame. The same holds true for the central and high Plains (from Nebraska up into the Dakotas and over into Minnesota).


Author: Mark Svoboda, National Drought Mitigation Center