The Rockies and Far West: Precipitation returned to the Northwest late in the period, but mostly dry weather prevailed elsewhere from the Rockies westward. Long-term drought has taken a severe toll on Western water storage, leaving cumulative reservoir supplies slightly below average in California and Montana and well below normal in every other Western state. As of January 20, Western snow packs and season-to-date precipitation totals were above normal in the Sierra Nevada and a few river basins in the southern Rockies, but less than 75 percent of normal across most of the Northwest and Intermountain West. As a result, extreme drought (D3) was expanded to include additional area in the Great Basin and environs. Some severe drought (D2) was retained where snow packs and season-to-date precipitation remained greater than 75 percent of normal, including parts of the central Rockies and some basins in southern portions of Idaho and Utah. Nevertheless, Western spring and summer streamflow forecasts recently issued by USDA and the National Weather Service are quite dire, forecasting generally 50 to 90 percent of normal runoff in 2003 virtually everywhere east of the Sierra Nevada and north of the southern Rockies.

The Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes: Another dry week brought some additional expansion of dryness and moderate to severe drought (D0 to D2) from the lower Missouri Valley to Lower Michigan. In south-central Michigan, Lansing recently completed its fifth-driest year during the 115-year period of record, with 2002 precipitation totaling just 21.93 inches (70 percent of normal). Only 0.15 inch (14 percent of normal) fell in Lansing during the first three weeks of January 2003. Farther south and west, a core area of extreme drought (D3) persisted over northwestern Missouri and adjacent areas, despite the end of a 62-day spell (November 15 - January 15) without measurable precipitation in locations such as St. Joseph, Missouri, and Olathe, Kansas. Both sites received 0.03 inch of precipitation (melted snow) on January 16. Though heavier snow fell farther north on January 14-15, including 10 inches in Pierre, South Dakota, liquid amounts were small and had little effect on long-term drought.

The East: Streamflows continued to dwindle in parts of the southern Atlantic region, reflecting the effects of long-term precipitation deficits (dating to 1998 in some cases) on groundwater reserves. Some moderate hydrological drought (D1) was reintroduced in South Carolina, where more than 50 percent of the state's river gauges reported streamflows in the lowest tenth of historical values on January 20-21. This was the state's first such occurrence since early October.

Hawaii: Cold fronts produced scattered, locally heavy showers from Kauai to western portions of the Big Island, preventing a worsening of conditions that range from abnormal dryness to moderate drought (D0 to D1) across the state.

Puerto Rico: Weekly rainfall totaled less than one inch at all Puerto Rican stations, with most locations receiving little or no precipitation. As a result, much of the Puerto Rico remains abnormally dry. In addition, streamflows remain very low on northern and eastern parts of the island.

Looking Ahead: From January 22-26, beneficial rain and snow showers will continue from northern California and the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies, but unfavorably dry conditions will persist elsewhere in the West. Elsewhere, significant precipitation will be confined to the southern Mid-Atlantic region, where snow is likely on January 23. Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal west of the Rocky Divide, but very cold weather will prevail from the Midwest into the East. The NWS 6- to 10-day outlook for January 27-31 calls for colder-than-normal weather to linger across the Southeast. Above-normal temperatures will continue in the West and expand across the Plains and Midwest. Above-normal precipitation is forecast across southern Florida, the Rio Grande Valley, and the nation's northern tier from the Pacific Northwest to the upper Great Lakes region, but mostly dry weather is expected elsewhere.