Summer 2009 Outlook and April to June Summary

Drought classifications are based on the U.S. Drought Monitor. For a detailed explanation, please visit http://drought.unl.edu/dm/classify.htm. The outlook integrates existing conditions with forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Outlook: After seeing the influence of La Niña over the last several months, forecasters anticipate neutral ENSO conditions through the summer. As we go into the fall and winter months, some models are showing a jump to El Niño conditions, so this will bear following over the next several months. With El Niño influence, the southern tier of the United States typically experiences cooler and wetter than normal conditions which would bring welcome relief to the current drought in Texas. Forecasters anticipate a likelihood for above-normal temperatures during the next three months over the western United States, south Florida and the interior of Alaska. Chances for above normal precipitation are greatest over Florida, New England, the southern Rocky Mountains and into the desert southwest. These rains would bring about improvements to the drought status in Arizona, New Mexico and Texas. Drought will persist over California, Hawaii, Oklahoma and south Texas.

April: April showers brought reductions in drought status for much of the United States during the month. At the end of the month, 61 percent of the United States was free from any dryness or drought, compared to 57.7 percent at the beginning of the month. As D0-D1 conditions improved, there was actually an increase in the spatial extent of D2-D4 drought as drought intensified in Florida, California and south-central Texas. A very dry March and April warranted the introduction of D0 conditions into Nebraska and Kansas. Conditions in the Southeast and up the East Coast of the United States improved as rains returned to the region, just in time for the start of the traditional agricultural season. Late season rains and snows allowed for improvements along the foothills of the Rocky Mountains in Colorado and into western Kansas. Spring thunderstorms brought some relief to portions of Texas and Oklahoma, allowing for the removal of D1-D2 conditions in both panhandles.

May: At the end of May, 30.1 percent of the United States was classified as abnormally dry or in drought, of which 12.33 percent was experiencing D1-D4 conditions, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. This compares to 34 percent and 14.5 percent at the beginning of May, respectively. During May, improvements to drought conditions took place over portions of Texas, most of Florida, the east coast and the central Rocky Mountain regions. Drought spread over Nebraska, South Dakota, Oklahoma, California, Montana and Hawaii, and intensified over portions of Texas.

Precipitation patterns for May helped the eastern United States the most, while the Plains, Northern Rocky Mountains, and southern California regions were below normal. The month of May in Florida is a great example of how quickly drought situations can change for a region. For much of the winter and spring, Florida was very dry. Even into the first two weeks of May, D2 and D3 drought dominated much of the Florida peninsula. Once the rains returned, almost all the drought was eliminated by the end of the month, with several locations recording record rainfall for the month of May. The majority of this precipitation occurred during the last two weeks of the month. Many locations throughout the southeastern United States recorded 200-400 percent of normal precipitation for May, while locations up the East Coast received 125-150 percent of normal precipitation. The Burneyville, Oklahoma, Mesonet site reported an incredible 24-hour total of 12.89 inches in early May, the fourth highest in the state’s history, bringing the week’s total to more than 15 inches.

Areas of Texas that did not receive beneficial rains saw drought conditions worsen. The worst of the D4 area was centered over Aransas County, Texas, where the Aransas County airport reported 14 percent of normal precipitation over the past nine months (3.43 inches versus 25.07 inches normally). Since March 26, 2009, the airport only measured 0.03 inches of rain, or 0.7 percent of normal. Since October 1, 2007, a total of 19 months, not counting this May, Aransas County airport has reported only four months with at least 50 percent of normal precipitation.

According to NCDC, this was the 22nd wettest May in the 1895-2009 record. Both Florida and Arkansas had their wettest May on record. For the month of May, Daytona Beach, Florida, recorded 22.33 inches (685 percent of normal); Sanford, Florida, 17 inches; Ponce Inlet, Florida, 17.74 inches; and Kissimmee, Florida, 17.09 inches. Planting delays were a concern for producers across the central Midwest as a wet April and May have delayed planting of both corn and soybeans.

June: After a cool start to the month for most of the United States, the summer heat kicked in towards the end of the month. With the heat, dry areas in the Plains that had been holding on with the cooler temperatures started showing impacts related to both drought and heat. Portions of south Texas started implementing water restrictions and burn bans. Rains in the central and northern Plains helped to diminish the abnormally dry conditions there, but the areas that did not see the rain are abnormally dry, on the brink of drought. After six-plus months of precipitation below normal, abnormally dry conditions (D0) were introduced into much of southern Louisiana, Mississippi and into east Texas and southern Alabama. Good rains returned to west Texas and allowed for the removal of all D2 status and a reduction of the D1. After a good spring for most of Oklahoma, moderate drought spread into more of the state in June as the heat and depletion of soil moisture started to take effect. Improvements in Oregon and Idaho took place in June, as D0-D2 conditions were improved.

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