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National Drought Summary -- May 13, 2008

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

Heavy rain and thunderstorms were seen across the Plains to begin this US Drought Monitor period, replenishing topsoil moisture and easing drought concerns in western Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle.  Over the weekend, the nation’s southern tier saw an outbreak of severe weather, with tornadoes, hail and heavy rain reported from Oklahoma through Arkansas and Missouri, as well as further south in the drought-stricken areas of Alabama and Georgia.  Heavy rainfall across major D3 areas of the South did little to ease long-term hydrological drought, but the subsequent deluge across the Mid-Atlantic improved conditions throughout North Carolina and Virginia.  Out west, dry weather persisted, with temperatures averaging slightly above normal for this USDM period.

The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic: Clear and dry weather across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic early in the period gave way to excessively wet weather to end the period.  A severe weather outbreak across the Southeast on May 10-11 brought thunderstorms and heavy rain to drought-stricken areas of Alabama and Georgia.  While the heavy rain (2 to 4 inches) replenished topsoil moisture and somewhat eased drought concerns for parts of northern Alabama, more rain is needed to improve the long-term drought impacts of northern Georgia and western South Carolina. 

An area of low pressure slowly moved through the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday, bringing excessive rainfall (4 to 7 inches) and flooding to Maryland and Virginia.  This heavy rain prompted a reduction from D1 to D0 for the Delmarva Peninsula, as well as eliminated D0 across central and eastern Virginia and northeast North Carolina.  The extent of D2 coverage in central Virginia and northern North Carolina was reduced, but the western D2 areas missed this timely rain.  Western North Carolina, in particular, received 1 to 2 inches of rain, but river streamflow levels remained at or below the 10th percentile, prompting a slight expansion of D2 coverage westward to the Tennessee state line, while D3 was expanded northward in northern Georgia and western South Carolina.

The Plains and Midwest: Heavy rainfall was seen early in the USDM period across the Texas panhandle and parts of western Oklahoma, where 2 to 3 inches of rain essentially erased short-term moisture deficits in the southern half of the panhandle.  The D0 boundary was pushed westward to the New Mexico state line, and D0/D1 coverage was reduced northward into Deaf Smith County, TX and southward into Gaines County, TX. 

Steady rain in western Kansas and southwest Nebraska (2 to 4 inches) early in the period warranted a small westward pullback of D0/D1 in the central High Plains.   Northwest Nebraska benefited from 1 to 2 inches of rain, and near-normal 30-day rainfall totals prompted the removal of the small D3 area in Box Butte and Dawes counties.  Continued excessive rainfall over the Black Hills of South Dakota prompted an expansion of drought-free conditions eastward from northeastern Wyoming into Butte and Meade counties in South Dakota, where river levels have seen a marked improvement in recent days.

Drought-afflicted areas of central North Dakota received 1 to 2 inches of moisture over the weekend, improving topsoil conditions over the previous week.  Climate divisions 1, 4 and 7 are experiencing the 4th, 8th and 10th driest 90-day periods, respectively (an improvement over last week’s ranking of driest 90-day period for all divisions).   Because this long-term dryness is still a significant concern, no improvements are warranted at this time for North Dakota.

The West: Dry weather continued for much of the West, with little to no precipitation reported across New Mexico, Arizona and California.  Beginning on May 11, an upper-level low pressure system brought light, scattered rain to the Pacific Northwest before digging southward into the Four Corners and central Rockies, where 1 to 4 inches of precipitation was reported.  Late-period rain in northwest Wyoming and southern Montana led to a reduction from D1 to D0, and 30-, 60-, and 90-day precipitation totals are at or above normal for the region.  Some dry pockets still exist (25-50% of normal precipitation for the last 30 to 90 days), namely in Carbon County, Montana and northern parts of Park County, Wyoming.

Reservoir storage across Arizona continues to rise, with current levels approximately 30% above average.  Drought blends indicate mostly short-term dryness for Arizona, therefore the region was adjusted to short-term (A) drought status.  Similarly, an area of the Great Basin from central Oregon through much of Nevada was adjusted to “AH” status, indicating drought conditions exist in both the short and long term. Overall, precipitation for the past 30 to 90 days remains below 50% of normal for much of California and Nevada, with similar values across central and eastern Washington and Oregon.  Reservoir levels throughout the west (with the exception of Arizona) remain below normal due to delayed snowmelt. Snowpack in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies exceeds 150% of normal due to recent wetness combined with cooler than average temperatures.  Snowpack across Nevada and New Mexico, meanwhile, remains below normal levels, and mountain snowpack during April 2008 decreased 30% or more across northern California, eastern Nevada and throughout the Four Corners region.

Hawaii, Alaska and Puerto Rico: Abnormally dry drought areas in central and eastern Alaska remain unchanged after the region saw minimal precipitation (less than 0.5 inches) during the current USDM period. 

Stations on the eastern half of Big Island in Hawaii reported 1.9, 3.0 and 5.5 inches of rain for the current USDM period, while stations on the western edge reported little to no precipitation. Similarly, a single station on Maui reported 2.0 inches, while the rest of the Hawaiian Islands remained relatively dry, resulting in no changes to the current extent of D0/D1 coverage.

Scattered, light precipitation across Puerto Rico (generally less than 1 inch) kept D0 status unmodified for the southern half of the island.

Looking Ahead: An upper-level trough will move through the Four Corners region and into the Southern Plains, triggering rain and thunderstorms across the Delta and Southeast.  Drought-stricken areas in Alabama and Georgia will likely see weekly rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with heavier amounts possible locally.  Rainfall over 3 inches is expected for far eastern parts of Texas and throughout Louisiana, with similar amounts forecast for the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic.  Dry weather is expected to persist throughout the West and across the Northern Plains, and the West will see a rapid increase in temperature as a strong high pressure ridge builds in the upper levels.

Cool weather is expected throughout the Corn Belt and Midwest for May 19-27, with drier than normal conditions forecast for the Pacific Northwest and Upper Mississippi Valley, as well as across the southern Plains and Gulf coast.  Temperatures warmer than normal are forecast for the West and Southwest, while central and eastern Alaska is likely to experience unseasonably warm and dry conditions for the next 7 to 14 days.

Author: Michael James/David Miskus, JAWF/CPC/NOAA

D0 ... Abnormally Dry ... used for areas showing dryness but not yet in drought, or for areas recovering from drought.

Drought Intensity Categories
D1 ... Moderate Drought
D2 ... Severe Drought
D3 ... Extreme Drought
D4 ... Exceptional Drought

Drought or Dryness Types
A ... Agricultural
H ... Hydrological

Updated May 14, 2008